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Ephemeral Delusion

Wednesday, December 8, 2010, 12:33 AM

DPRK

Democratic People’s Republic of Korea- or perhaps more commonly known simply as North Korea, is one of the last few communist countries in the world today. With its stagnant economy and Stalin totalitarian governance style by their Dear Leader Kim Jong-il, this hermit country continues to awe yet strike immerse fear in any person whom have the slightest knowledge of what really goes on in this most isolated country in Asia. Defectors, majority making up of undisclosed defections of high ranking North Korean diplomats whom secretly sought refuge in the South as well as other parts of Asia, revealed dark period of turmoil in the North, turbulent and proliferated with ongoing famine, paranoia and demanding absolute obedience to the Dear Leader, etched in every North Korean’s heart since birth as God and formidable one.

When Kim Il-sung suddenly passed away in 1994, amidst live broadcast of North Koreans crying their hearts out over the death of their Eternal President which stirred ambivalent reactions from the world, two questions were also quickly raised: Will North Korea implode after Kim Il-sung’s death, and secondly, are the tears of the North Koreans made up of genuine sadness or rooted from the most basic element of fear and propaganda overdose?

Other than the US struggling determination to curb North Korea’s nuclear program, which the north is apparently not very enthusiastic about, several headlines that ruffled the attention of the international community are the promotion of the next successor, Kim Jong-Un as heir in line to Kim Jong-il, and yet to come the torpedo attack on the Cheonan (a South Korea warship) that killed 46 sailors. And just last week, it shelled a South Korean island, killing two marines, two civilians and injuring many more. None of these were predicted by the State Department, and its closest ally China- although no long “as close as lips and teeth”, has been thrown off guard for the past few incidents. However their historic roots goes all the way back to the Korean War, and there is no pretence about it. As explained by Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew: “Beijing sees a North Korea with nuclear weapon less bad as for China than a North Korea that has collapsed.” North Korea’s reluctance in complying with China’s demands will definitely damage bilateral relations; it is however certain that China will neither pressurise nor confront North Korea because Washington asked it to do so. Brother Ali once sang in his controversial song about the US- Uncle Sam might weld the big brother spot, but looking back at the US immensurable debts and China’s rising global prosperity, giving in the Obama administration is lethal in China’s political hierarchy.

The North has no qualms in going to war with the South, despite the South having strong backings from the US, ought to be avoided at all cost. China may appear nonchalant, yet starting a war means elevated American presences in the north of DMZ (an ironically most heavily militant and mine dense line of demarcation), and this will definitely incur the wrath of China. Not to mention unleashing the influx of North Koreans seeking refugee in China, this will lead to a loss in the buffer zone between China border and the American troops in the South. It could also be violent, instigating clashes between the Korean refugees and native Chinese for different social and survival reasons.

So what now?

Perhaps Kim wants to boost the confidence of his “too young and inexperienced” son, thus a crash course in succession 101 to show him the extent of attention North Korea can elicit in the international community. Having suffered a stroke two years ago, it is his priority in advancing a secured succession as his heir apparent. During this transition phase, it was originally predicted that Kim Jong-il would want a peaceful handing over. The DPRK’s initiative to the South for family reunion last October where more than 400 South Koreans crossed the border into the North at the resort of Mount Kumgang on the North’s southeastern coast to meet their relatives separated six decades ago from the Korean War in the 1950. This act was however debated as more of a form of bait to the South in exchange for more humanitarian aid, rather than an innocent gesture for reunification. It is a show, is it not? Civilians’ lives are often undervalued, and the easiest target for these exhibitionists’s voyager freak show.

Despite predictions from South Korean and American officials that the military outburst may hint the last snarls of a dying dictatorship, after all no dynasty ever survives beyond the third generation, an educated guess may still be short on fact. After all we are talking about the least known country in the world, and Kim Jong-il’s ailing health doesn’t seem to be slowing him down in strategizing and execution of his plans. After all Kim has only one fear in mind- will the regents appointed to his son prepared to serve faithfully, or will his loyal officials ever upraise a revolution to unseat him.

At this particular juncture, it is obvious that no one solution can appease the tension between the DPRK and South Korea. China may have a strong upperhand in contrary to the other players, but do bear in mind that PRC doesn’t weld an absolute influence over Pyongyang. The next step is critical, especially after South Korea’s new defence minister Kim Kwan-jin said on his confirmation hearings last Friday: “If the enemy attacks our people and territory again, I will use force to punish the enemy to make sure it doesn’t even dare think about it again.” The fuse now lies in the hands of the North.

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